Jovan Kurbalija: History of Diplomacy and Technology: From smoke signals to artificial intelligence, 2nd edition (DiploFoundation: Geneva, 2025)
Methodologically inspired by the French Annales School of historiography and determinedly reaching beyond Europe, the author of this book has nevertheless produced a work that has rarely sacrificed important detail to breadth of focus. Its general thesis is that the evolution of diplomacy has been shaped by three great technological inventions: writing, electricity and digitalization, and each is examined in turn. It is a work of considerable authority: carefully sourced and argued, as well as being fluent, rich in intriguing facts, tightly organized, and illustrated with beautiful and often intriguing pictures. It is a genuine tour de force. Although aimed chiefly at young professional diplomats, it can be read with advantage by older ones and will be of great value to historians of the subject as well.
I have only a few quibbles. Inevitably, there is much reliance on historical inference in dealing with the ‘proto-diplomacy’ of the earliest humans that might be a shade over-confident. For example, unless there are reasons for discounting this, the discovery of black and red pigments at a site in Kenya at least 30 kilometres from the nearest source (p. 38) might just as well be evidence of foraging as of trade-inducing diplomacy between different groups 300,000 years ago. But there is in principle nothing wrong with historical inference. With this in mind, I think that greater prominence might have been given to the probability that more secrecy was going on in the diplomacy of ancient Greece than is commonly supposed (Adcock and Mosley notwithstanding); more than half a page might also have been given to its proxenoi, who – save for the fact that they were citizens of a receiving state – would have come close to being the first resident ambassadors. The claim that the Vatican is currently able to ‘excel in mediating deeply entrenched conflicts that require nuanced negotiation and trust’ (p.149) needs evidence, for the only case I can recall in recent years is the assistance it gave to the normalization of relations between the USA and Cuba during President Obama’s time.
Perhaps unavoidably, too, the need to compress evolutionary episodes over such a long period sometimes leads to the suggestion that change was more abrupt than was in fact the case. Thus the resident ambassador created in Renaissance Italy in the late fifteenth century did not, as the author implies, at once take over the negotiation of international agreements. In fact, he was for a long time a somewhat lowly figure who was usually required to continue allowing a special envoy to craft any important agreement until well into the seventeenth century; defending the reputation of his prince, lobbying, and, above all, information-gathering was meanwhile his humble stock in trade. So, too, the mid-nineteenth century appearance of the electric telegraph did not reduce the autonomy of the ambassador to the degree suggested, especially if he were to be well-connected at home; in any case, he could send as well as receive telegrams and was still able to speak with the authority of the man on the spot.
I could have spent much longer on this book’s sound insights into the relationship between technology and diplomacy, not least on the increasing prominence of technology itself on the international agenda, but they can speak for themselves. I shall, therefore, conclude by looking at what Dr Kurbalija has to say about AI and diplomacy, a subject on which he writes with unusual authority. I might add that I looked at this with the eye of a fully paid up, card-carrying technophobe, who would rather walk than have to struggle with an electronic ticket machine at a car park.
Chapter 16, the final chapter of the book, begins with the bold announcement that ‘Artificial intelligence, the defining technology of the modern era, is poised to revolutionise the ancient art of diplomacy’ (p. 315). But it turns out not to be quite the messianic blast at which this hints, for Kurbalija’s professional experience of AI since the early 1990s has turned him into something of a techno-sceptic, and he has written this book not least as an historical reminder of diplomacy’s reflexive but judicious embrace of technological change – whatever form it takes.
Thus he is firm that diplomatic representation and negotiation are greatly helped via AI’s automated translation and interpretation services, and that its ability to master vast datasets allows it to help negotiation further by providing exceptional background research and – via simulation, predictive modelling and real-time analysis of public opinion responses – the opportunity to adjust strategy accordingly. As for the general diplomatic tasks of information gathering, analysis and reporting, he is unhesitating in acknowledging that AI is in a class of its own. It can also be used for generating political influence and information warfare, while the greater part of routine consular work (not least in emergencies) can be handled by chatbots and virtual assistants. Meanwhile, in the foreign ministry at home, AI cannot be confined to a single department but will permeate the whole institution and gradually erode any cultural resistance.
On the other hand, Kurbalija is keen to emphasise that, so much of the drudgery of their calling having been removed by AI, diplomats have more time and energy to deploy the key attributes it lacks: strategic and moral reasoning, empathy, intuition, and the capacity for genuine relationship-building. In consular work itself, humans would have more time to handle the more complex and sensitive cases.
In the meantime, diplomats and consuls alike must be AI savvy; in particular, says the author disarmingly, they must be able to ‘critically address AI limitations such as hallucinations’ (p. 330). That really is frank, and had me thinking I should re-read Louis de Bernières’ novel, Light over Liskeard, and check out estate agents with properties for sale on remote Bodmin Moor.
With reservations about its ability to game negotiations, I think Dr Kurbalija – no Dr Strangelove – has got the balance right on AI. In any case, it’s usually best to recognise the inevitable and come to terms with it. Having said that, I resisted the temptation to click on the modest banner heading at the top of each page which says ‘This appears to be a long document. Save time by reading a summary using AI Assistant.’ I strongly recommend this book – but not the AI Assistant. It also has a good analytical index.
- R. Berridge, Emeritus Professor of International Politics, University of Leicester