27 January, 2026. I heard this phrase for the first time way back in the late 1960s in a report from a friend about a fiery seminar debate between political sociologists in which a visiting speaker accused someone who attacked him of having this disposition. Since then I have often had occasion to observe it, particularly on the part of politicians at extreme ends of the political spectrum. But why is ignorance likely to encourage arrogance, which seems counter-intuitive and is more often associated with expertise?
I had a fair understanding of the connection, which I recently discovered is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, but thought there is probably more to it than that so asked Copilot about it. This is a distillation of the main points of its rather laboured but nevertheless useful answer:
People with low expertise often overestimate their competence [display arrogance] because they don’t know enough to recognise what they don’t know; this is the Dunning–Kruger effect. In addition, arrogance can be a way of projecting authority: in many environments, not least politics, exaggerated confidence is rewarded more visibly than accuracy, not least if it’s a big lie. But arrogance isn’t caused by ignorance alone. ‘Plenty of uninformed people are humble and curious. The dangerous combination is ignorance without curiosity—a closed mind defending a small map.’
When, as in the case US President Donald Trump, the arrogance of ignorance is coupled with the arrogance of power (a term popularised by J. William Fulbright in the 1960s), the world has a real problem, one of the most eloquent signs of which in January 2026 is the soaring price of gold.